Tuesday, February 5, 2013

Indonesia insurance property market forecast 2013

best insurance stock - Indonesia insurance property market forecast 2013 : Property insurance market share continues to shrink. Data General Insurance Association of Indonesia (AAUI) in the first semester of this year noted, the property insurance market share slipped to 27.4% from the same term last year's 29.9%.

Property market share surpassed by motor insurance rose to 30.1% from the previous 29%. Until the beginning of the semester, the total general insurance premiums Rp 18.89 trillion, grow 12.8% compared to the same period last year of Rp 16.74 trillion.

Property insurance contributions Rp 5.1 trillion or an increase of 3.5% from the same period last year of Rp 5 trillion. While gross property insurance claims actually grew 24.6% to Rp 2 trillion from Rp 1.6 trillion in the previous period. Premium of Rp 5.6 trillion, up 17.2% from Rp 4.8 trillion.

Increasingly shrinking property insurance estimate because the war was still going on tariffs. As a result, players choose cautious about accepting risk property insurance.

In addition, the granting of commissions to intermediaries such as broker or brokerage has been no standardization. First, the commission to the broker the range of 15% -20%, now has a range of 25% -30%. In addition, property premium rates were calculated using the model per mile.

Unlike auto insurance, calculations based on the percentage of the vehicle price. "Hence, the growth of the motor vehicle, the premiums vary with the property," said Julian.

With this condition, it is not likely the property insurance market share will continue to shrink in the coming period. Moreover, the desire to create a preference industry premium rates for property insurance has not yet materialized. That is, the property insurance premium price competition will continue to happen.

In fact, the desire to make the tariff preferences that have been around a long time. However, until now there is statistical data collected premium of industry players to make such preferences. Unlike in vehicle insurance, is there a reference rate.

2013 Asian commercial insurance rates

best insurance stock - 2013 Asian commercial insurance rates :Continued economic growth and low natural catastrophe losses, combined with strong competition between insurers in most classes of business, will continue to provide favourable market conditions for buyers of commercial insurance in Asia during 2013, according to a report published today by Marsh.


Organisations across Asia, especially those with little or no exposure to natural catastrophe risk or with good loss histories, should be able to secure reductions on their insurance rates, continuing a trend begun in the second half of 2012, Marsh noted in its Asia Insurance Market Report 2013.

However, Asian companies offering employee benefit programs can expect more challenging conditions this year as medical cost inflation continues to escalate significantly, putting upward pressure on rates.

For example, Marsh expects insurers to seek average rate increases of up to 35% in Thailand where medical inflation is expected to rise between 20% and 25% this year. An upward trend, with local variations, is expected to be seen in most Asian countries.

Marsh also noted that while rates for directors and officers (D&O) insurance for US-listed Chinese companies remained high the market had largely stabilised, partly due to a slow-down in IPO activity.

Across the rest of Asia, D&O rates generally remained flat or decreased, as increased litigation against directors was offset by an increase in insurance capacity.

�The insurance market in Asia remains generally favourable to buyers as the flow of capital, capacity and competition into the region keeps rates competitive,� says Martin South, CEO of Marsh in Asia-Pacific.

�However, there will always be the possibility of spikes in premiums following large market losses. As the industry matures, clients should focus on providing their insurers with robust evidence of their risk management and mitigation strategies, not only to secure competitive pricing, but also to ensure they have insurance protection aligned to their particular risk needs.�

The report also finds that employees� compensation (workers� compensation) in Hong Kong continues to be a challenging market. Rates continue to rise significantly as loss experiences deteriorate and major insurers enter and exit the market, creating significant turbulence.

Banks continue to use structured trade credit insurance as a way to both deleverage their balance sheets yet still remain active in the trade finance market in Asia.

Professional liability insurance remains a buyers� market, with highly competitive rates across Asia as new insurer entrants bring additional capacity and competition to the market, says the report.(source www.cfoinnovation.com )

Monday, February 4, 2013

Selective Insurance Group SIGI Stock rating price target by RBC Capital

best insurance stock - Selective Insurance Group SIGI Stock rating price target by RBC Capital : Selective Insurance Group (NASDAQ: SIGI) had its target price upped by RBC Capital from $20.00 to $23.00 in a report released on Monday. RBC Capital currently has a sector perform rating on the stock.

Separately, analysts at Zacks upgraded shares of Selective Insurance Group from a neutral rating to an outperform rating in a research note to investors on Tuesday, January 8th. They now have a $21.50 price target on the stock.

One analyst has rated the stock with a buy rating, and six have assigned a hold rating to the stock. The company currently has an average rating of hold and an average target price of $20.40.

Selective Insurance Group traded down 0.77% on Monday, hitting $21.82. Selective Insurance Group has a 52-week low of $16.22 and a 52-week high of $22.08. The stock�s 50-day moving average is currently $19.85. The company has a market cap of $1.200 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.17.

Selective Insurance Group last announced its earnings results on Thursday, January 31st. The company reported ($0.04) earnings per share for the quarter, beating the analysts� consensus estimate of ($0.17) by $0.13. The company had revenue of $449.00 million for the quarter, compared to the consensus estimate of $394.86 million. During the same quarter last year, the company posted $0.33 earnings per share. Selective Insurance Group�s revenue was up 12.1% compared to the same quarter last year. On average, analysts predict that Selective Insurance Group will post $1.51 earnings per share for the current fiscal year.

The company also recently declared a quarterly dividend, which is scheduled for Friday, March 1st. Stockholders of record on Friday, February 15th will be given a dividend of $0.13 per share. This represents a $0.52 dividend on an annualized basis and a yield of 2.36%. The ex-dividend date of this dividend is Wednesday, February 13th.

Selective Insurance Group, Inc. is a holding company of seven insurance subsidiaries. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers property and casualty insurance products and services in the East and Midwest of the United States.

Aflac Dividend Stock forecast

Aflac Dividend Stock forecast
Aflac Dividend Stock forecast : Aflac Incorporated provides supplemental health and life insurance in Japan (80% of earnings) and the U.S. Products are marketed at work sites and help fill gaps in primary coverage.

Fair Value: In calculating fair value, I consider the NPV MMA Differential Fair Value along with these four calculations of fair value, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Avg. High Yield Price
2. 20-Year DCF Price
3. Avg. P/E Price
4. Graham Number

AFL is trading at a discount to 3.) and 4.) above. The stock is trading at a 16.2% discount to its calculated fair value of $61.44. AFL earned a Star in this section since it is trading at a fair value.

Dividend Analytical Data: In this section there are three possible Stars and three key metrics, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. Free Cash Flow Payout
2. Debt To Total Capital
3. Key Metrics
4. Dividend Growth Rate
5. Years of Div. Growth
6. Rolling 4-yr Div. > 15%

AFL earned three Stars in this section for 1.), 2.) and 3.) above. A Star was earned since the Free Cash Flow payout ratio was less than 60% and there were no negative Free Cash Flows over the last 10 years. The stock earned a Star as a result of its most recent Debt to Total Capital being less than 45%. AFL earned a Star for having an acceptable score in at least two of the four Key Metrics measured. The company has paid a cash dividend to shareholders every year since 1973 and has increased its dividend payments for 30 consecutive years.

Dividend Income vs. MMA: Why would you assume the equity risk and invest in a dividend stock if you could earn a better return in a much less risky money market account (MMA) or Treasury bond? This section compares the earning ability of this stock with a high yield MMA. Two items are considered in this section, see page 2 of the linked PDF for a detailed description:

1. NPV MMA Diff.
2. Years to > MMA

AFL earned a Star in this section for its NPV MMA Diff. of the $992. This amount is in excess of the $500 target I look for in a stock that has increased dividends as long as AFL has. The stock's current yield of 2.6% exceeds the 2.54% estimated 20-year average MMA rate.

Memberships and Peers: AFL is a member of the S&P 500, a Dividend Aristocrat, a member of the Broad Dividend Achievers� Index and a Dividend Champion. The company's peer group includes: American Independence Corp. (AMIC) with a 0.0% yield, Unum Group (UNM) with a 2.3% yield and CNO Financial Group, Inc. (CNO) with a 0.8% yield.

Conclusion: AFL earned one Star in the Fair Value section, earned three Stars in the Dividend Analytical Data section and earned one Star in the Dividend Income vs. MMA section for a total of five Stars. This quantitatively ranks AFL as a 5-Star Very Strong stock.

Using my D4L-PreScreen.xls model, I determined the share price would need to increase to $51.47 before AFL's NPV MMA Differential decreased to the $500 minimum that I look for in a stock with 30 years of consecutive dividend increases. At that price the stock would yield 2.6%.

Resetting the D4L-PreScreen.xls model and solving for the dividend growth rate needed to generate the target $500 NPV MMA Differential, the calculated rate is 5.3%. This dividend growth rate is lower than the 7.9% used in this analysis, thus providing a margin of safety. AFL has a risk rating of 1.25 which classifies it as a Low risk stock.

Operating in the two largest insurance markets in the world (U.S. and Japan), AFL has built a tremendous low-cost distribution system. Focusing on supplemental insurance products, AFL consistently generate excess returns for shareholders. Consistent earnings has allowed the company to increase its dividend and repurchase shares.

Despite a strong business model, the AFL's balance sheet remains stressed due to questions over some of its investments, specifically European bank hybrid bonds and European sovereign debt. The company has taken steps to de-risk its investment portfolio. This move will likely slow earnings growth over the next few years, but should lead to higher long-term value.

AFL is currently trading at a discount versus its historical valuation. The company is trading below my calculated fair value price of $61.44. However, a recent runup in its share price has lowered the stocks yield, so for now I will wait on a more attractive entry point before adding to my position.

Disclaimer: Material presented here is for informational purposes only. The above quantitative stock analysis, including the Star rating, is mechanically calculated and is based on historical information. The analysis assumes the stock will perform in the future as it has in the past. This is generally never true. Before buying or selling any stock you should do your own research and reach your own conclusion. See my Disclaimer for more information. Disclosure: At the time of this writing, I was long in AFL (1.5% of my Dividend Growth Portfolio).source : http://seekingalpha.com/article/1154141-aflac-incorporated-dividend-stock-analysis?source=google_news

Thursday, January 31, 2013

Selective Insurance Group financial results ended December 31, 2012

Selective Insurance Group financial results ended December 31, 2012 : Selective Insurance Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:SIGI) today reported its financial results for the fourth quarter and year ended December 31, 2012.  For the quarter, net income per diluted share was $0.02 and operating loss1 was $0.04.  Net income for the year was $0.68 per diluted share and operating income1 was $0.58 per diluted share.  Overall net premiums written grew 5% in the quarter and retention was up a point to 85%.


�Hurricane Sandy was the most significant event in company history, yet we still ended the quarter with positive net income � a testament to our strong underlying insurance operations performance and our comprehensive reinsurance program,� said Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer Gregory E. Murphy.  �For the quarter, Sandy resulted in net catastrophe losses of $47 million and a reinsurance reinstatement premium of $9 million; partially offset by flood claims handling fees of $16 million; resulting in an overall, pre-tax, net loss of $40 million and $0.46 per diluted share after tax.  Sandy contributed 9.8 points to the combined ratio for the quarter, but only 2.5 points to the year, yielding an overall fourth quarter statutory combined ratio of 110.4%, excluding the impact from Sandy2 it was 100.6%.

�The hurricane made landfall in our top market share state of New Jersey,� said Murphy.  �Our Claims and Flood departments have been working tirelessly to resolve claims quickly and fairly, and to inform flood customers of the federally mandated National Flood Insurance Program�s claims process.  Personal lines received approximately 8,000 claims and have closed 85% and commercial lines received approximately 5,000 claims and have closed 62%.

�We were pleased with our overall performance in the quarter, delivering a statutory combined ratio of 100.6%, excluding the impact of Sandy2.  Personal lines led the positive results with a combined ratio of 93.9%, excluding Sandy2, and renewal price that increased 8.3% for the quarter.  In personal lines, we continue to file rate increases as well as improve the mix of business and expand the number of agency storefronts,� said Murphy.

�For the quarter, standard commercial lines had a combined ratio of 101.1%, excluding Sandy2,� continued Murphy.  �We completed our 15th consecutive quarter of price increases with standard commercial lines renewal price up 6.7%, and 6.2% for the year.  Our granular pricing strategy and sophisticated underwriting, as well as our strong agency relationships, has given us an edge over the past several years that continues to pay off in strong results.

�Investment income for the quarter was $26 million, after tax, compared to $23 million in the fourth quarter 2011, due to improved performance in the alternative investment portfolio.  For the year, investment income, after tax, was $100 million.  We continue to manage our investment income through a very low interest rate environment without unduly adding more credit or duration risk,� concluded Murphy.

Fourth Quarter Highlights 2012 Compared to Fourth Quarter 2011

    Net income of $1.3 million, or $0.02 per diluted share, compared to $18.0 million, or $0.33 in 2011
    Operating loss1 of $2.3 million, or $0.04 per diluted share, compared to operating income1 of $20.4 million, or $0.37 in 2011
    Combined ratio: GAAP: 109.0% compared to 97.9% in 2011; Statutory: 110.4% compared to 98.7% in 2011
    Combined ratio excluding the impact of Hurricane Sandy2: GAAP 99.3%; Statutory 100.6%
    Favorable prior year statutory reserve development on our casualty lines totaled $2 million compared to $10 million in 2011
    Total net premiums written (NPW) were $370.6 million, which were reduced by the reinstatement premium related to Hurricane Sandy of $8.6 million
        Standard Commercial Lines NPW were $273.2 million
        Standard Personal Lines NPW were $68.1 million
        Excess and Surplus Lines NPW were $29.4 million
    Catastrophe losses were $33.8 million, after tax, including $30.3 million for Hurricane Sandy
    Gross pre-tax catastrophe losses from Hurricane Sandy were $136 million
    Flood net income of $12.0 million, after tax, including $10.1 million for Hurricane Sandy
    Investment income, after tax, was $26.3 million
    Net realized gains, after tax, totaled $3.6 million

Year-End Highlights for 2012 Compared to Year-End 2011
  •     Net income was $38.0 million, or $0.68 per diluted share, compared to $22.0 million, or $0.40 in 2011
  •     Operating income1 was $32.1 million, or $0.58 per diluted share, compared to $21.2 million, or $0.38 in 2011
  •     Combined ratio: GAAP: 104.0% compared to 107.2% in 2011; Statutory: 103.5% compared to 106.7% in 2011
  •     Combined ratio excluding the impact of Hurricane Sandy2: GAAP 101.5%; Statutory 101.0%
  •     Favorable prior year statutory reserve development on our casualty lines totaled $17 million compared to $29 million in 2011
  •     Total NPW were $1,666.9 million, which were reduced by the reinstatement premium related to Hurricane Sandy of $8.6 million
  •         Standard Commercial Lines NPW were $1,263.7 million
  •         Standard Personal Lines NPW were $289.9 million
  •         Excess and Surplus Lines NPW were $113.3 million
  •     Catastrophe losses were $64.1 million, after tax, including $30.3 million for Hurricane Sandy
  •     Flood net income of $19.1 million, after tax, including $10.1 million for Hurricane Sandy
  •     Investment income, after tax, was $100.3 million
  •     Net realized gains, after tax, totaled $5.8 million for the year

Balance Sheet and Guidance
At December 31, 2012, Selective�s assets were $6.8 billion, up 20% over prior year primarily due to reinsurance recoverables of $1.4 billion, compared with $0.6 billion in 2011, and $4.3 billion in the company�s investment portfolio, which increased 5% compared to December 31, 2011.

Stockholders� equity was up 3% for the year to $1.1 billion and book value per share increased 2% to $19.77.  Statutory surplus was down 1% in 2012 to $1.1 billion.

Selective�s Board of Directors declared a $0.13 per share quarterly cash dividend on common stock payable March 1, 2013 to stockholders of record as of February 15, 2013.

Selective expects to generate a 2013 full year statutory combined ratio, excluding catastrophes, of 96.0%.  We currently estimate catastrophe losses will add three points to that ratio.  In addition, investment income will be down slightly to $90-$95 million.  Anticipated weighted average shares at year end 2013 of 56 million.

The supplemental investor packet, including financial information that is not part of this press release, is available on the Investor Relations� page of Selective�s public website at www.selective.com.  Selective�s quarterly analyst conference call will be simulcast at 8:30 a.m. ET, on February 1, 2013 at www.selective.com.  The webcast will be available for rebroadcast until the close of business on March 1, 2013.

About Selective Insurance Group, Inc.
Selective Insurance Group, Inc. is a holding company for ten property and casualty insurance companies rated �A� (Excellent) by A.M. Best.  Through independent agents, the insurance companies offer primary and alternative market insurance for commercial and personal risks, and flood insurance underwritten by the National Flood Insurance Program.  Selective maintains a website at www.selective.com.

Forward-Looking Statements
In this press release, Selective and its management discuss and make statements based on currently available information regarding their intentions, beliefs, current expectations and projections regarding Selective�s future operations and performance.

Certain statements in this report, including information incorporated by reference, are �forward-looking statements� as that term is defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 (�PSLRA�).  The PSLRA provides a safe harbor under the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 for forward-looking statements.  These statements relate to our intentions, beliefs, projections, estimations or forecasts of future events or our future financial performance and involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that may cause our or our industry�s actual results, levels of activity, or performance to be materially different from those expressed or implied by the forward-looking statements.  In some cases, you can identify forward-looking statements by use of words such as �may,� �will,� �could,� �would,� �should,� �expect,� �plan,� �anticipate,� �target,� �project,� �intend,� �believe,� �estimate,� �predict,� �potential,� �pro forma,� �seek,� �likely� or �continue� or other comparable terminology.  These statements are only predictions, and we can give no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct.  We undertake no obligation, other than as may be required under the federal securities laws, to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially from those projected, forecasted or estimated by us in forward-looking statements, include, but are not limited to:
  •     difficult conditions in global capital markets and the economy;
  •     deterioration in the public debt and equity markets and private investment marketplace that could lead to investment losses and fluctuations in interest rates;
  •     ratings downgrades could affect investment values and therefore statutory surplus;
  •     the adequacy of our loss reserves and loss expense reserves;
  •     the frequency and severity of natural and man-made catastrophic events, including, but not limited to, hurricanes, tornadoes, windstorms, earthquakes, hail, terrorism, explosions, severe winter weather, floods and fires;
  •     adverse market, governmental, regulatory, legal or judicial conditions or actions;
  •     the concentration of our business in the Eastern Region;
  •     the cost and availability of reinsurance;
  •     our ability to collect on reinsurance and the solvency of our reinsurers;
  •     uncertainties related to insurance premium rate increases and business retention;
  •     changes in insurance regulations that impact our ability to write and/or cease writing insurance policies in one or more states, particularly changes in New Jersey automobile insurance laws and regulations;
  •     recent federal financial regulatory reform provisions that could pose certain risks to our operations;
  •     our ability to maintain favorable ratings from rating agencies, including A.M. Best, Standard & Poor�s, Moody�s and Fitch;
  •     our entry into new markets and businesses; and
  •     other risks and uncertainties we identify in filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, including, but not limited to, our Annual Report on Form 10-K and other periodic reports.

These risk factors may not be exhaustive.  We operate in a continually changing business environment, and new risk factors emerge from time-to-time.  We can neither predict such new risk factors nor can we assess the impact, if any, of such new risk factors on our businesses or the extent to which any factor or combination of factors may cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements in this report.  In light of these risks, uncertainties and assumptions, the forward-looking events discussed in this report might not occur.

Selective�s SEC filings can be accessed through the Investor Relations� section of Selective�s website, www.selective.com, or through the SEC�s EDGAR Database at www.sec.gov (Selective EDGAR CIK No. 0000230557).

1 Operating income differs from net income by the exclusion of realized gains or losses on investments and the results of discontinued operations. It is used as an important financial measure by management, analysts and investors, because the realization of investment gains and losses on sales in any given period is largely discretionary as to timing. In addition, these investment gains and losses, as well as other-than-temporary investment impairments that are charged to earnings and the results of discontinued operations, could distort the analysis of trends. Operating income is not intended as a substitute for net income prepared in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). A reconciliation of operating income to net income is provided in the GAAP Highlights and Reconciliation of Non-GAAP Measures to Comparable GAAP Measures. Statutory data is prepared in accordance with statutory accounting rules as defined by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners Accounting Practices and Procedures Manual and, therefore, is not reconciled to GAAP.

2 The Hurricane Sandy impact includes catastrophe losses, reinstatement premium on the catastrophe reinsurance program and the flood claims handling fees generated as a result of Hurricane Sandy.

Zacks downgraded Rating Stock of Meadowbrook Insurance Group

Zacks downgraded Rating Stock of Meadowbrook Insurance Group : Zacks downgraded shares of Meadowbrook Insurance Group (NYSE: MIG) from a neutral rating to an underperform rating in a report issued on Thursday. They currently have $6.00 target price on the stock.

Meadowbrook Insurance Group traded down 0.95% on Thursday, hitting $6.27. Meadowbrook Insurance Group has a 1-year low of $5.21 and a 1-year high of $10.19. The stock�s 50-day moving average is currently $5.98. The company�s market cap is $312.1 million.

Meadowbrook Insurance Group, Inc. (Meadowbrook) is a specialty focused commercial insurance underwriter and insurance administration services company.

To view Zacks� full report, visit www.zacks.com

Sunday, January 27, 2013

Insurance claims from the latest Queensland floods

best insurance stock - Insurance claims from the latest Queensland floods have already topped $27 million, as river levels continue to rise in large parts of the state. As of Monday morning, "just shy of 3000 claims" had been lodged relating to losses in Queensland, said Campbell Fuller, general manager for communications at the the Insurance Council of Australia.

The total claimed losses are likely to be "well north of $40 million", he said. "Rivers are still rising across south-eastern Queensland," he said, adding that flood waters were yet to peak at Ipswich and much of Bundaberg remained underwater.

Heavy rain is also falling over much of New South Wales as the remnants of former tropical cyclone Oswald move south.

The Bureau of Meteorology has posted a severe weather warning for destructive winds, heavy rain and abnormally high tides over a wide area stretching from the Illawarra to the Northern Rivers region.

The council yesterday declared a catastrophe for large parts of Queensland affected by storms and inundation. The declaration means insurers have set up a taskforce to co-ordinate their response to recovery efforts.

The floods are the third catastrophe declared so far this year following severe bushfires in south-eastern Tasmania and northern NSW. The council has declared six catastrophes in Queensland for flooding and cyclone damage since 2010, with losses reaching almost $4 billion.

Insurers and re-insurers have singled out water - either too much or too little of it - as the main risk from extreme weather in Australia.

The council, in particular, has been calling for increased spending on efforts to limit the damage from flooding, such as the construction of flood levees around flood-prone towns.

Despite those calls, Mr Fuller said, there had not been much money spent in Queensland since the last big floods there in 2011.

"I'm unaware of any substantive mitigation that has taken place over the past two years," he said.

The ICA has set up a disaster hotline on 1800 734 621 to help people identify their insurer and their coverage, particularly for those unable to access their own records because of the floods Source http://www.watoday.com.au

Understanding Auto Insurance Basics- What You Need to Know

Buying auto insurance is critical task unless you know the basics of auto insurance; otherwise you have to end up unnecessary costs and expe...